in a country where thousands of educated applicants line upto apply for a few railway porters' jobs, what could be more alluring to a couple of million students and unemployed ex-students from rural telangana than desk jobs that ensure regular pay (or pensions) and benefits for over 4-5 decades? especially when jobs in the private sector pay far less and require technical skills and english speaking abilities?
how many people would benefit from 3 lakh jobs?
3 lakh or less families, directly. we don't know how many people would benefit indirectly, but it'd be a huge expenditure on the new state to be shouldered by around 80 lakh families (and around 40 lakh more by 2050), every day, month and year for 40-50 or more years. [i'm going by the trs' estimate of the population of telangana, which is 4 crores, or around 80 lakh families].
but why 3 lakh jobs?
but why only 3 lakh jobs? why not 5 lakhs? or 15 lakhs? or 80 lakhs? or sarkari jobs for all 180-190 lakh people of working age in the region/new state? over 3-5 lakh new job aspirants graduate from various colleges every year. the number would perhaps double in another 5 years because several new universities have been established in the past couple of years, and a few more are in the pipeline. 3 lakh new jobs wouldn't satisfy the needs of all the graduates coming out of universities even this year, how about those who graduate next year, and the next, and so on?around 6 lakh new kids are born in the region every year, shouldn't the new state plan for at least 5 lakh jobs in government every year?
3 lakh new jobs would benefit only 0.75% of all individuals, or 3.75% of all families, or 1.35% of the working age population of telangana, shouldn't a new telangana state benefit all the 80 lakh families in the state? or, because 80% of indians, as arjun sengupta report says, live on less than a dollar a day (or, live on less than rs.20 a day per capita expenditure), shouldn't jobs in government be given to at least one member from each of the 64 lakh or more families which live on less than a dollar a day in telangana?
how did the ideologues of the telangana movement arrive at the magic figure of 3 lakhs? there are around 12.5 lakh government (and state owned public enterprises) employees in andhra pradesh and around 5.5 lakhs of them are in telangana. kerala, a state of comparable size (3.1 crore population), has around 5 lakh government employees. doesn't telangana already have enough employees? why does it need 3 lakh more?
why would telangana need 3 lakh more employees?
the separatists' answer is, probably, that the andhraites stole 3 lakh government jobs which rightfully belong to telanganis, so the 3 new lakh jobs are not really new jobs. prof.jayashankar, so-called ideologue of the telangana movement, says:
It should to be noted that the number of employees recruited between 1973 and 1985, violating the statutory requirements, was estimated to be around fifty nine thousand. There could be difference of opinion about the figure. Whatever the number, it was as in December 1985. Since then, neither the G.O. has been implemented nor making illegal appointments stopped. Therefore, the first thing to be done in this regard is to work out the number of these appointments made from 1973 till now, spanning a period of nearly two decades. According to several unofficial, but reliable, surveys the figure has already crossed two Lakhs.prof.jayashankar seems to have written this article around 2003 (34 years after 1969, is what he indicates in the beginning of the article). between 1985 and 2003, he seems to believe, around 1,40,000 new employees from andhra and rayalaseema had been recruited, violating the statutory requirements.
could 1,40,000 jobs have been 'stolen' between 1985 and 2003?
is it possible that jobseekers from andhra and rayalaseema could have 'stolen' 1,40,000 jobs from telanganis, in addition to their share (around 60%, keeping in view their share in population for most of the period we're looking at ) in all government jobs, between 1985 and 2003? as i don't have the exact figures of how many jobseekers were recruited between 1985 and 2003, i am going to work on the possibilities of job 'theft' in a roundabout fashion by looking at some figures compiled by the government of india on public employment between 1981 and 2003 here.
the first thing you'll notice when you look at the data is that employment in government and public sector undertakings has remained almost static for almost two decades since 1991. the second interesting thing i noticed is that employment in the andhra pradesh govt now is almost one-sixth the total employment in all state governments (12.5 lakhs and 73.67 lakhs respectively). how much has total employment in all state governments grown since 1981 (as we don't have figures for 1985)? by, roughly, 17 lakhs. assuming, employment in andhra pradesh government formed roughly the same proportion of total employment in all state governments as it is now (1/6th), by how much could have employment in andhra pradesh government have grown between 1981 and 2003? 1/6th of 17 lakhs is 2.9 lakhs, say?
now, going back to my original question: could jobseekers from andhra and rayalaseema have 'stolen' 1,40,000 jobs from telanganis in addition to 1.74 lakhs (their 60% share in jobs) between 1981 (not even 1985) and 2003? 1.4 lakhs plus 1.74 lakhs would make 3.14 lakhs (which is more than our guesstimate of total recruitment of 2.9 lakhs). could the jobseekers from andhra and rayalaseema have obtained more jobs than all the jobs actually offered by the andhra pradesh government?
such is the wisdom of prof.jayashankar. look at the figures, play around with them a little. even if you assume employment in andhra pradesh government is 1/5th (3.4 lakh growth in govt jobs between 1981 and 2003) of the total employment in all state governments in india put together, you've again arrived at an impossible number (3.44 lakhs) that says jobseekers from andhra and rayalaseema have obtained more jobs than all the the jobs actually offered by the government of andhra pradesh. if you assume employment in andhra pradesh government is 1/4th (4.25 lakh growth in govt jobs between 1981 and 2003) of the total employment in all state governments in india put together, then you get the figure of 3.95 lakhs. could 3.95 lakh aspirants from andhra and rayalaseema have obtained jobs while only 30,000 aspirants from telangana managed to get through?
right from 1969, restless minds in telangana have exercised too much imagination over this issue of stolen jobs. how many jobs could have been stolen if so many overactive minds, overstimulated after such events as the tragic 1969 agitation (which seemed to have miraculously spared the clever 'ideologues' and 'thinkers' while hundreds of innocent youngsters lost their lives and thousands of others lost their careers and much else), were ever ready to use their magnifying lenses and the courts?
forget 1,40,000 jobs between 1985 and 2003, could 1,40,000 jobs have been stolen between 1981 and 2003, or between 1973 and 2003? the original figure of 25,000 in 1969 had some substance, perhaps. because there wasn't a large enough educated middle class in telangana to absorb all those jobs that were due to them. the figure of 59,000 in 1985 is, as prof.jayashankar himself says, an opinion. the figure of 2,00,000 in 2003, in my honest opinion, is pure fiction. and that fictitious figure has now grown to 3,00, 000 even though recruitment has slowed down, and total employment in government has actually fallen, since 1991.
we did not need an advertising campaign
we needed a social movement that could take all the crores of people who live on less than rs.20 a day to a less oppressive future, not a divisive campaign to instigate millions of innocent students to learn to hate because a few lakh among them would get secure jobs.